(Mike Crapo's headquarters on election night 2010)
Last Election: To be honest, Mike Crapo has won almost every election he has participated in dating back to Mrs. Smith's third grade student council elections (there happened to be a vote missing that cost Crapo the victory). Ever since he became a politician, Senator Crapo has pushed his way to his current position and has won most elections by a fairly wide margin. In his last election for his Senate seat in 2010, he came in as the undisputed heavyweight incumbent in Idaho and he came out swinging as the results (House of Clerks website, which was very reliable and accurate) were:
- Mike Crapo, Republican - 319,953 votes
- P. Tom Sullivan, Democrat - 112,057 votes
- Randy Lynn Bergquist, Constitution - 17,429 votes
- Frederick R. Reinisch, Jr., Write-In - 91 votes
As you can tell, incumbent Crapo won by a considerably large margin. He even blew out his primary opponent by a landslide as well as Mike Crapo gathered approximately 80% of the vote while Skip Davis only mustered up about 20%. Although issues are continually brought up by his opponents in regards to Congress' inability to get anything accomplished, Crapo has done well to push this problem off (a good secondary source to see how the media perceives the elections and the candidates) onto the Democratic party and their ignorance towards the various problems that face our country (especially Idahoians) like budget deficits.
Primary/General Elections Outlook: In both elections, there has been little chatter of who is going to run, if any, against Big Bad Mike Crapo, whom will be going for a fourth term! There has been speculation of possibly Raul Labrador (a useful secondary source in Idaho that reports a few times on elections) running for the Senate seat, but nothing has been confirmed yet. As Jacobson notes, the incumbent has an advantage as PACs normally favor incumbents especially if they have kept their word. From quick observation, Crapo's main donors have been from the financial sector and have obviously been pleased with the Senator's actions in Congress as he has found his way into various committees that deal with the finance issue.
Election Prediction: My prediction is that Mike Crapo will win the primary election considerably as no one really has the experience or momentum to challenge him. In the general election as Idaho is a traditionally sun-burned red state and it does not seem like it is going to change anytime soon, so if Crapo can win the primary, he can win it all. My guess is he will carry about 65% of the popular vote.
2012 Election: In the 2012 election, Idaho managed to keep it plan and simple and carry Mitt Romney with 64.5% of the popular vote, which is a trend that has existed well beyond the last 20 years. In respect to Idaho's previous voting record and their constantly-voting red nature, I don't think that the simultaneous running of elections this year will have any negative effect on Crapo's chances especially as the election may overshadow some of his misdeeds (like the drinking and driving stunt). Mike Crapo is a well-known household name for all true Americans living in Idaho and name recognition alone would have Crapo out front.
(Mike frustrated he did not win more votes)
Campaign Financing: In the previous two elections, Senator Crapo has raised significant (and I mean large) amounts of money for his campaign especially in comparison to his opponent. Currently he has raised around $2 million since 2011, but in the 2010, he did not make a big push for money until the last two years and raised over $4 million. I am spectulating that this will be the case for the 2016 election. As I have stated before, Senator Crapo is heavily supported by the financial industry (banking, insurance, etc) and these contributors are very good at filling up Crapo's pockets. As no one has declared to run against Crapo, it is difficult to see how much they are possibly raising, but there maybe someone somewhere gaining the courage and capital to take on the Bald Eagle of Capitol Hill.
Major Issues: Being a traditionally conservative state, Idaho focuses a lot on the spending and high budget deficits of Congress as the popular vote is normally driven by economics. This is what he has been campaigning on for the majority of his elections and the topics don't seem to change as much as the years do. Now that Obama is out of office, Crapo will have to find another punching bag, but he is a fairly resourceful guy and will find someone (preferably a democrat) to put the blame on. To people in Idaho specifically, Crapo's drinking scandal may cost him some integrity points, but look for him to put the focus more on Congree itself than his actions. Crapo always does well to aim for the older voters and he makes sure that everyone is aware that he is willing to fight to the death for these peoples' pension plans! Crapo has also been pushing for reform in the agriculture sector and cutting excess taxes for farmers trying to sell their harvest. Crapo also is fighting for the military both home and abroad through a foreign affairs push and defense spending push. He is playing the obvious cards correctly and he knows this state better than almost anyone as he has lived in it most of his life. In the large general picture, Idaho is going to vote for the candidate that best represents their values and attitudes and as a true Idahoian, Mike Crapo knows what those are.
